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Defining Subjective Probability With Examples

Our Subjective Probability assignment writers explain that subjective probability is based on a belief, feeling, or a hunch of an event that there is nothing concrete that ensures that this will happen. But even so, there is something in the person that makes him lean towards a specific event, this can be past experiences or just a feeling. It is not based on numbers, statistics, or anything that requires some mathematical process or calculation.

In this probability, we usually do not use fractions or percentages to express the probability of an elementary event but is based on ensuring or denying that an event will happen, but there are also cases in which the probability of an event is express in %.

It is mostly used in more normal situations and not so much it is serious situations, such as an analysis of an important report, or to decide on a company. But it is especially used in things of everyday life that do not have a very important significance.

Among the many probabilities that are studied in statistics, the subjective probability is the one that is most connected with human feeling rather than with data or facts, subjective probability can be highly influenced by the mood or faith of the person.

Examples of Subjective Probability

Example 1, Is it a boy or a girl ?: The grandmother of an unborn baby ensures that the future baby will be a girl and not a boy, the grandmother is based on the mother s cravings, the shape of the mother's stomach, and other characteristics that she has been able to observe during pregnancy.

Example 2, Probability of rain: An old man of 70 years says that it is very likely that it will rain simply by observing some behaviours of nature, even though the day does not seem cloudy, the old man is convinced that it will rain, aspects such as the behaviour of birds flying somewhere or the unusual sound of some amphibians convince him that it will rain today.

Example 3, Probability of being hired: A young believer went to a job interview where it was found that 30 other people were applying for the same position, at first glance the probability of being hired is very low, but the young man confidently thinks that the work will be yours.

Mathematical Description Of Subjective Beliefs

To specify our beliefs we must measure how plausible we think each possible outcome is. Accurately describing our beliefs can be a difficult task, so we will explore how to calibrate subjective beliefs.

When there are many possible outcomes of an event it is practically impossible to calibrate subjective beliefs for each outcome, instead, we can use a mathematical function.

For example, you can think that an average woman is 156 cm but be open to the possibility that the average is a little higher or lower. Thus, you can describe your beliefs through a bell-shaped curve centred at 156. Let's not forget that we are describing probabilities, subjective or not, they must fulfill the axioms of probability.This is why the curve must form a probability distribution.

Yes now p (θ) p (θ) represents the degree of our belief in the values of θθ, then the mean of p (θ) p (θ) can be thought of as a value of θθ representing our typical or core belief. For its part, the variance of θθ, which measures how dispersed the distribution is, can be thought of as the uncertainty between the possible values.  

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